Continues to attract large-ticket capital and partnership structures (including private capital) as grids, storage and transition infrastructure scale.
Australia’s 2025 market stayed active but tightened in both value and volume, while the US (and broader global cycle) showed a clearer value rebound driven by fewer, larger transactions and sector reconfiguration.1
Sources: LSEG and PwC analysis
“With capital costs steady and confidence back, 2025 shifted Australia’s M&A from caution to competition—corporates accelerated portfolio reshaping, inbound strategics returned on FX tailwinds, and fierce bidding for scarce high‑quality assets sharpened execution.”
Kushal Chadha,Deals Leader | PwC AustraliaSources: LSEG and PwC analysis
What the numbers say
- 2025e deal value: US$79.5bn (vs US$86.8bn in 2024).
- Value concentration remained high in Energy and Financial Services (combined c.+70% of value).
What it means
- The market continued to reward assets with ‘strategic scarcity’: infrastructure-like cashflows which have extended to include agri-assets, energy and AI transition positioning, and platforms that can be scaled or integrated.
- Buyers preserved flexibility through minority investments, phased ownership structures and partnership models, adopting a minority-to-majority pathway to manage uncertainty rather than proceeding directly to 100% acquisitions.
“As pricing gaps continued to tighten and capital flowed back into core markets, the Australian infrastructure M&A landscape strengthened through 2025-26. Core assets traded at steady returns with super funds and private capital active with pre-emptive processes continuing to be a feature, while core-plus investments in energy transition, transport and digital assets underpinned a resurgence of deals in this segment of the market.”
Clara Cutajar,Partner, Global Capital Projects & Infrastructure Leader, PwC AustraliaSources: LSEG and PwC analysis
What the numbers say
- 2025e deal volume: 1,285 deals (vs 1,390 in 2024).
- By count, activity was broad-based, with several mid-market Industrials and Consumer deals representing a large share (c.24% and c.21% respectively) of transactions.
What it means
- Fewer deals does not equal less strategic intent. Data from PwC’s 29th Global CEO Survey shows sustained appetite for acquisitions and partnerships: 52% of Australia’s CEOs are planning major acquisitions in the next three years; with 40% planning to drive change via M&A/partnerships in the next 12 months.
- The constraint is execution capacity, not ambition. Regulatory and process friction is rising (including more complex approval pathways and greater scrutiny), which is extending timelines and pushing boards toward fewer, higher-conviction deals often sequenced through partnerships, staged investments, and structured outcomes.
Three themes that defined 2025
1) Portfolio recycling accelerated
Divest-to-invest logic strengthened: carve out what does not fit the future, reinvest behind platforms and capabilities that do.
Examples:
- Santos executed divestments of two non-core assets as it optimised its portfolio, including an upfront payment plus contingent milestones.
- Westgold Resources completed the sale of the non-core Lakewood Milling Operation for $85m consideration (cash plus scrip), simplifying its operating footprint.
- APA Group completed the divestment of its Networks business (gas distribution O&M entities), consistent with portfolio focus and capital recycling.
2) Deal structures became a risk-management tool
Staged buy-ins, minority stakes, partnerships and consortia were used to create “optionality” under uncertainty particularly for capital-intensive plays (energy networks, data centres, housing and social infrastructure).
Examples:
- Insignia Financial disclosed proposal features that included alternative consideration structures (including a potential unlisted stub equity alternative), reflecting flexibility to bridge valuation and funding constraints.
- Santos’ Mahalo JV divestment used contingent payments linked to production milestones, a clean example of structure being used to allocate risk and preserve upside/downside symmetry.
3) Capability M&A mattered more than scale
CEO motivations for undertaking acquisitions still include scale efficiencies and growth of market share (68% and 66%), but capability acquisition is increasingly explicit (36% seeking new capabilities; 16% to gain access to new technology/IP). Noting strategic roll-up strategies continue to play out, particularly in the mid-market with financial sponsors looking to achieve scale pre-exit.
What happened in 2025
While Global Deal value saw a meaningful increase on 2024 (c.+36%), Australia’s 2025 M&A market was resilient but selective. Volumes eased, and overall value softened off 2024 levels, with activity skewing to larger transactions in Energy and Financial Services. Mid-market dealmaking continued, but buyers stayed disciplined on price and structure as funding costs and risk premia remained sticky.
Strong inbound activity
Global investors still see Australia as an attractive market with inbound deals representing c.45% of total deal value in 2025, up from c.30% in 2024 with US, Canada and Japan providing the largest inflows.2
Recent examples of inbound-led activity include:
- Brookfield (Canada) and GIC (Singapore) agreeing to acquire National Storage REIT via scheme (announced December 2025); and
- CC Capital (US) and OneIM entering a scheme to acquire Insignia Financial (announced July 2025).
At the same time, intent data suggests Australia may be underweight in global inbound investment plans: only 5% of CEOs globally plan to invest in Australia in the next 12 months (with Japan up to 9%, and the US down to 5%).3
Evolving regulatory environment
From a regulatory perspective, there is some tension for inbound investors between strong underlying fundamentals of Australian assets and the ‘higher friction’ environment (process, duration, complexity) to get deals done. The introduction of the FIRB’s two new two-tiered risk-based assessment has helped to improve processing times of lower risk transaction (such as in manufacturing, professional services and non-critical minerals); however more sensitive areas including critical infrastructure, critical minerals, critical technology, proximity to sensitive government facilities and transactions involving sensitive data are facing more extensive reviews.
Concurrently, Australia has enacted the most significant overhaul of its merger control regime in decades, replacing the previous voluntary merger review system. From 1 January 2026, a mandatory and suspensory merger control regime requires parties to notify the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) of transactions that meet defined monetary, control and jurisdictional thresholds and to obtain clearance before completion. This regime introduces longer planning timelines, more comprehensive documentation and pre-notification engagement obligations, with transitional voluntary notification available from mid-2025. While these reforms are designed to bring greater structure and certainty to competitive review in M&A, the expanded procedural requirements, extended review periods and associated costs may influence bidder behaviour and deal timing.
Private equity remained active, but selective
In 2025, Australia’s private equity market demonstrated renewed momentum, with improving deal activity, increased exit readiness and selective reopening of public equity markets (including high-profile sponsor-backed listings) supporting liquidity, while inbound capital and operational value creation remained central amid ongoing regulatory and execution complexity.
2025 saw a comeback of sponsors in buyout deals with both volume and value up c.28% and 32% on 2024 respectively to reach USD$30.5b across 95 deals. Conversely, sponsor exit value decreased by more than half to USD$10.8b, despite exit numbers rising to 50 deals, with the decline largely reflecting the absence of ‘mega deals’ deals similar to the 2024 outlier AirTrunk exit by Macquarie Asset Management.4
What this means for Australia’s private equity market in 2026 is cautious optimism, supported by the continued outperformance of private markets, resilient inbound investment and gradually improving—though still uncertain—macroeconomic conditions. Following a period of subdued fundraising and exits after the 2022 peak, the year ahead is expected to see increased exit activity for long-held assets alongside a renewed phase of fundraising as pricing expectations reset and liquidity pressures build.
Australia remains an attractive destination for global capital given its historically strong returns, predictable fiscal framework and deep institutional investor base. Inbound investment from the US and Asia, particularly Japan, is expected to remain a key driver of M&A, with strong interest in energy transition, infrastructure and defensible mid-market assets. At the same time, heightened regulatory scrutiny and execution risk are shaping deal structures, favouring bilateral processes, continuation vehicles and secondaries, while sponsors intensify their focus on DPI, private credit solutions and digital and AI-enabled value creation.
“Private equity kicked back into gear in H2 2025, with a more stable economic and geopolitical environment driving increased deal activity. Bolt‑on acquisitions accelerated, whilst new platform deals in founder‑owned businesses, public‑to‑privates and carve‑outs were supported by strong co‑investor demand, and focus on portfolio company exits increased, particularly from inbound corporate acquirors.”
Troy Porter,Partner, Private Capital Industry Leader, PwC AustraliaMid-market activity strong
Anecdotally, we’ve seen significant activity pick-up in the M&A mid-market in Australia driven by a confluence of factors including continued succession planning and the inter-generational transfer of wealth, build up of PE dry powder being deployed on select, quality assets and continued economic and technological change influencing founders to consider potential exit options.
Cautious re-opening of the IPO window
In 2025 the global IPO window showed renewed breadth and momentum after several quiet years with the US market up c.25% in IPO value in 2025 (c.USD$34b to November 2025) compared to c.USD$27b full year total in 2024.5 Tech and AI-linked issuers, particularly in the US and Asia, accounted for a disproportionate share of fundraising and investor interest with expected momentum from the AI-wave expected to continue into in 2026.
By contrast, the Australian IPO market’s recovery in 2025 was more measured. Per the ASX, Australian listings saw a 37% increase from 67 in 2024 to 92 in 2025, with the second half of the year doubling the volume in the first half (H1 2025: 30 vs H2 2025: 62).6 Standout domestic offerings included the re-listing of Virgin Australia (VGN), which has traded above its issue price in early 2026, and Greatland Gold listing at $6.60 in late June 2025 to trading at $12.30 (as at 13 February 2026), supporting rising subscription rates and investor confidence.
The contrasting profiles; a global market driven by larger, often technology-anchored transactions and Australia’s market characterised by smaller, pragmatic listings suggest the IPO window has opened selectively rather than universally. For 2026, this implies a cautiously constructive environment: broader global supply is likely if AI and growth tech issuers translate private market valuations into public markets, while the ASX may benefit from stronger execution and investor demand for profitable, well-governed businesses rather than sheer deal volume. Continued macro stability, easing monetary policy and improved equity market depth should support this trend, conditioned on issuers meeting heightened readiness criteria.
Sectors to watch (2025 signals, 2026 implications)
Data centres, connectivity, and software-enabled platforms remain in focus as “AI foundations” and digitisation investment ramps. The CEO Survey highlights a gap between ambition and execution on AI investment.
The appetite of private capital to invest in ‘core-plus’ assets, the imminent Free Trade Agreement with Australia and the Europe Union, and broader ‘food security’ trends are likely to support continued activity in the sector through 2026.
Convergence themes (retail–media–fintech; telco–media–cloud) continue to blur sector lines and create new adjacency plays.
A continued convergence theme particularly where assets offer scalable platforms and recurring demand.
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Looking ahead to 2026
Three signals to carry into 2026:
PwC’s 29th Global CEO Survey – Australian insights
CEO confidence in economic growth has surged, yet transforming fast enough to keep pace with tech and AI is the number one concern.
Global M&A industry trends: 2026 Outlook
AI investments and an explosion of megadeals are creating a K-shaped M&A market.
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