Aussie Mine 2025

Material investment in critical mineral projects has not yet emerged, despite surging demand for defence supply chains and the global pursuit of net zero through renewable energy. The ‘Investable Universe’ (i.e. Australian projects which are considered attractive by commercial investors) has only increased by a net seven projects since last year. The mix of minerals that make up these projects remains dominated by copper, nickel & lithium. 

To secure minerals for defence and economic resilience, it’s quite common for government to intervene and influence supply and demand (e.g. through price mechanisms, direct investment, regulatory levers, strategic stockpiling, etc).

However, the current geopolitical and economic conditions are prompting governments to adopt ‘state-first’ postures and take extra measures to secure supply chains.

Of course, steps like these can have unintended consequences too. Australia’s miners should therefore think carefully about how government interventions may impact them. The mining industry has a big part to play in shaping policies and interventions targeted at securing the supply of critical minerals.

As we’ve said in previous Aussie Mine reports, meeting future critical minerals demand requires investment and scale. And those can only happen when there is sustained alignment of company strategies, financial markets,  governments, customers and communities.

This year’s geopolitical and economic uncertainty has complicated efforts to achieve such alignment. There were only two notable critical minerals transactions (totalling $3.8bn for the Alumina Limited acquisition and $0.59bn for the Latin Resources acquisition, including its flagship Salinas Lithium project).

Instead, MT50 deals volume has been dominated by gold. This includes $12.4 billion in deals relating to gold company mergers, including Northern Star Resources’ acquisition of De Grey Mining for $5 billion.

Mergers & Acquisitions are being pursued to consolidate and optimise gold mining asset portfolios to build economies of scale and volume for when high prices ultimately recede.

The long-term success of these larger gold producers will depend on the realisation of synergies and cost reduction targets through well managed and executed post-integration projects.

The AI buzz is now deafening, with management teams feeling the pressure from their boards and competitors to ‘use AI’ and to deliver fast returns. But the real opportunity is to pinpoint where AI will create maximum value (and potentially competitive advantage) pending company maturity. This requires a genuine shift in thinking (more like a tech startup than a traditional mining company).

Early-stage miners have the advantage of starting from a zero base – they can ‘try, fail and learn’ fast.

To reap the full benefits of AI, mining companies need clarity on their long-term strategic objectives. They can then assess where AI can help them achieve those objectives faster, more accurately, and more efficiently (‘strategy-back’, not ‘AI-forward’). Remarkable results are possible when leaders have a clear view of strategic business priorities, data and technology feasibility, and the people who will use technology.

Australia’s move to mandatory sustainability reporting is approaching a major milestone with Group 1 disclosures expected to be published in early 2026. This milestone is an opportunity to align climate and business outcomes. Now is the time to quantify how investment in on‑site renewables and batteries can add value, while also hedging energy volatility and rising carbon costs under the Safeguard Mechanism.