Australia’s M&A trends 2026 in EU&R: Big Bets in Energy, Utilities and Mining

In power and utilities, coal powered generation retirements are accelerating investment into utility‑scale renewables, storage and flexible generation, with grid access, firming and delivery track record now the decisive drivers of value. Long‑dated offtake and capacity mechanisms are enabling capital recycling and platform consolidation across generation, storage and networks. 

In energy and fuels, LNG and flexible gas remain central to system reliability and to Asian demand, sustaining interest in midstream and portfolio transactions and prompting sell‑downs and joint ventures that bring in long‑term infrastructure capital while preserving strategic control. In resources, gold continues to consolidate at scale, particularly in the small and mid-market space where the market has backed merger activity, while critical minerals strategies are being reshaped through customer‑backed offtakes, processing partnerships and government support aimed at de‑risking development and anchoring allied supply chains. 

How deals get done is evolving. Premiums are accruing to assets with secure power, grid and fuel access and to teams with proven delivery. Large transactions increasingly rely on consortiums and co‑investments that blend strategics, private equity, sovereigns and private credit, with early attention to governance, tax and risk allocation now essential. With a stable and reliable track record of project execution, at a time of increased global tension, Australia’s EU&R market is primed for higher volumes, more partnerships and bolder portfolio reshaping in 2026. 

Although rates may continue to rise, capital remains plentiful, particularly from infrastructure funds, sovereigns and large strategics seeking scale in transition platforms. Government schemes are derisking portions of the stack: long-tenor offtakes, capacity auctions and concessional finance are narrowing returns and facilitating portfolio recycling. In this environment, Australian EU&R valuations show a clear premium for assets with secure access to critical infrastructure, power, grid connection, fuel and other scarce inputs, concentrating buyer interest on platforms that can scale quickly and reliably. These conditions underpin expectations for a significant uplift in deal volumes and Australia’s status as a priority destination for capital.

• Coal exit and firming race: The retirement of coal powered generation capacity is driving accelerated investment into utility-scale renewables, batteries and flexible peaking capacity, with grid connection, firming and delivery track record now the decisive differentiators in pricing and diligence. Coal phaseout continues to be the central, but not the only, force behind renewables and battery storage investment and consolidation. KKR’s recent acquisition of Zenith Energy is demonstrative of the growth opportunity to increase the scale of renewable and hybrid energy solutions across Australia’s most remote and energy-intensive industries, particularly mining. 
• Data centres and AI: Globally, hyperscale buildouts are reshaping demand curves and underwriting long-dated offtakes, especially where developers can pair incremental capacity with clean firming and network augmentations. The AI and data centre uplift is a major driver of global EU&R investment, with platforms that can deliver reliable, low-carbon power attracting outsized interest. High-profile initiatives like the US$500bn Stargate project, backed by OpenAI and the AI Infrastructure Partnership as well as private equity, credit, energy and technology companies, illustrates a broader shift toward hybrid investment platforms that combine long-term capital with operational capability and demand certainty. Increased interest by governments on how this growth will be powered, could also increase the size and complexity of both organic and inorganic facilitated growth.
• Platform M&A and capital recycling: Potential activity could emerge from public to private and secondary trades of operating portfolios; boltons for developers with scarce grid access; and carveouts where integrated utilities split out development or retail arms to surface value. Earlier landmark transactions such as the take-private of AusNet Services by Brookfield demonstrated global appetite for regulated networks, while ongoing capacity investment schemes and transmission upgrades continue to shape the opportunity set.

What to watch

• Developer-to-operator migration as balance sheets partner with long-term capital for completion and ramp-up.
• Corporate PPAs anchored to hyper-scalers and miners, reshaping risk allocation across projects.
• Battery storage platforms scaling through acquisition and augmentation, with emphasis on merchant risk management and multiuse revenues. 

• LNG remains strategic: Asian demand, portfolio optimisation by majors and the need for flexibility in domestic systems keep LNG and midstream infrastructure in focus. Australia’s LNG infrastructure is a highly strategic asset that continues to attract strong interest from international buyers/investors, including the unsuccessful ADNOC-led approach to Santos. 
• Gas as bridge and system balancer: Onshore and midstream assets that provide firm supply for industry will remain sought after, though policy and social licence considerations will shape diligence and valuation. 
• JV and infrastructure partnerships: Expect further monetisation of midstream and processing via minority selldowns and joint ventures that bring in long-term infrastructure capital while retaining strategic control, building on precedents where sponsors have syndicated stakes in processing trains and pipelines to institutional investors.

What to watch

• Portfolio reshaping, including by global supermajors providing opportunities for new equity participation in strategic energy assets and infrastructure.
• Domestic gas supply dynamics and pricing frameworks influencing east coast asset strategies. 
• Australian based investment/projects including new project developments increasing in favour given current global tension.

• Gold consolidation: Australia is at the centre of a global wave of gold‑mining consolidation. Producers are merging to attract capital, gain scale, lower costs through optimisation of deposits and processing infrastructure and secure longer‑life, higher‑quality reserves. Expect continued portfolio reshaping and further deals, as shown by Northern Star Resources’ bid for De Grey Mining. 
• Battery minerals and rare earths: Capital is gravitating to assets with resource quality, credible ramp-up pathways, downstream optionality and OEM offtake support. Government initiatives are targeting project derisking and processing onshore, and allied policy settings are reinforcing Australia’s role in diversified critical mineral supply chains. Government-backed initiatives are being used to derisk projects and the US is aiming to establish a domestic rare earth supply chain by 2027, with Australia considered a key source. Energy Fuels proposed transaction to acquire Australian Strategic Materials is aimed at creating a fully integrated "mine-to-metal" rare earth element producer outside of China. Recent partial rebounds in lithium prices and high demand amongst miners for quality copper assets should also be expected to support M&A activity. 
• Structures evolving: Expect more strategic partnerships, offtake linked investments, and staged funding that blend project finance with equity from customers and sovereigns. Carveouts of noncore commodities and regional rationalisations are likely as diversified miners refocus on core growth and returns. 

What to watch

• The path to downstream: selective investments in processing where feedstock security and policy support converge. 
• Recycling and circular economy moves in battery materials and tailings retreatment as part of broader ESG and resilience strategies.

• Financing mix broadens: Private credit and hybrid capital are complementing bank and bond markets, particularly for construction and ramp-up phases. Sponsors are leaning on long-dated offtakes and capacity payments to reduce volatility and compress the cost of capital.
• Consortiums and co-investments: Large transactions and platform builds are increasingly executed via consortiums blending strategics, infrastructure funds, sovereigns, private equity and customers. Private capital is partnering with corporates in consortium and co-investment models, with complex deals requiring early attention to tax, accounting, governance and risk-sharing frameworks.
• Valuation and diligence: A premium applies to assets with secure access to critical infrastructure, power, grids, fuel and key inputs, and to platforms with proven delivery. Energy market risk modelling, grid connection certainty, construction and supply chain due diligence, and emissions trajectories under the Safeguard Mechanism are front and centre. Access to key inputs and infrastructure is a critical value driver. 
• Regulatory and approvals: FIRB, critical infrastructure and environmental approvals timelines continue to define execution risk. Early engagement on social licence, First Nations partnerships and regional workforce plans remains a differentiator.

• Build optionality into power: Secure grid capacity, firming and long-dated offtakes early. Where possible, package projects with transmission solutions and demand anchors such as data centres and minerals processing.
• Prioritise advantaged resources: In mining, focus on portfolio optimisation and adding resource base to existing or already approved/funded processing facilities and consider if less attractive/developed or stranded (to you) projects are better off in someone else’s hands. In power, prioritise projects with credible routes to connection and firming. 
• Use partnerships to accelerate: For largescale energy and LNG assets, deploy JV and minority selldowns to infrastructure capital to unlock balance sheets while retaining control over operational and market risk. 
• Underwrite with customers: Pair processing and critical mineral investments with OEM or end-user co-investment and offtakes to reduce ramp-up risk and secure margin.
• Derisk execution: Address consenting, supply chain and EPC capacity early; consider modular delivery and standardised designs; and embed robust risk-sharing with contractors and partners. 
• Prepare for complexity: For consortium deals, set tax, accounting, governance and risk-allocation frameworks upfront to shorten execution time and lower bid risk.
• Embed transition and resilience: Model emissions and energy market exposures through the investment horizon and incorporate resilience strategies such as storage, demand response and hedging. 

Dealmakers with credible delivery platforms, access to scarce inputs and the ability to partner at scale will lead the next leg of growth. Australia’s EU&R market is set for more activity, more partnerships and more strategic portfolio reshaping in 2026, anchored by the energy transition, the data economy and strong global capital interest. Australia is positioned as a pivotal destination for both strategic and financial investors in the year ahead.